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mariacallous · 6 months ago

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In the 30 years that South Africa has been a democracy, none of the country’s past national elections has felt quite as uncertain as this month’s vote.

That’s because this election may, for the first time, challenge the long-standing reign of the African National Congress (ANC), the powerful party that has dominated South African politics since the end of the country’s apartheid system in 1994. For six consecutive elections, the ANC has handily won the majority of the national vote—but that winning streak may soon end.

As South African voters grow increasingly frustrated with rampant corruption, sweeping unemployment, high levels of crime, and the country’s long-standing energy crisis, some polls suggest that the ANC will fail to secure a majority of the vote. If that happens, the party would likely be forced to cobble together a coalition government with other parties—setting the stage for a new chapter in South African politics.

“What is at stake now is a reckoning with the fact that the country that we live in now is not the country that we hoped for 30 years ago, and it is a pivotal time to make a decision to break with the past and make bold decisions for change,” said Redi Tlhabi, a South African journalist.

As South Africa prepares to head to the polls on May 29, Foreign Policy unpacked why this election matters—and what happens if support for the ANC falls below 50 percent.

1. Who are the major players here?

The ANC, which is currently led by incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa, has long reigned supreme in South African politics dating back to 1994, when the country held its first democratic election and Nelson Mandela became president.

“In the post-apartheid era in democratic South Africa, the African National Congress has always won by a landslide,” said Simon Allison, the co-founder of the Continent newspaper.

No party comes close to rivaling the ANC’s political heft, although many are ramping up efforts to sway voters in the run-up to the election. “The ANC’s greatest gift is this gift of a weak opposition,” said Ebrahim Fakir, a political analyst and expert in South African politics. The opposition is “fragmented, disparate, uncoordinated,” he added.

The ANC’s biggest challenger is the pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA), which is led by John Steenhuisen and secured a little less than 21 percent of the vote when elections were last held, five years ago. Ahead of next week’s vote, the DA formed a multiparty charter of 10 opposition parties in its bid to “finally unseat the ANC.” Yet the party is known for its largely white leadership and has struggled to appeal to Black voters, who make up 80 percent of South Africa’s population.

“They’ve been losing Black leadership in their party,” said Hussein Solomon, a senior professor at the University of the Free State in South Africa. “They are regarded as out of touch, as a white elitist party,” Solomon added.

Another challenger is the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party, which was formed around 2013 by former ANC youth leader Julius Malema and won 10 percent of the vote in 2019. The EFF has positioned itself as a radical, Marxist party, pushing for higher corporate taxes, the nationalization of mines, and land redistribution, the latter of which it says will lead to “economic emancipation.”

And the wild card is former President Jacob Zuma, who resigned in 2018 after a nearly nine-year presidency marked by corruption scandals and is set to face trial for corruption charges next year. In April, Zuma made waves when a court cleared him to participate in this election with his recently founded uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK)—although South Africa’s top court recently overturned that decision, ruling that his past criminal conviction prohibits him from being a candidate until five years after the completion of his sentence. In 2021, Zuma was convicted of contempt of court.

Yet, though he can’t run in next week’s election, experts say that Zuma still wields significant political influence behind the scenes. “Zuma is a very powerful politician with a very strong support base in KwaZulu-Natal province,” Allison said. “He spent his time in office, especially as president, developing networks of patronage and loyalty—and those networks did not disappear overnight.”

2. What do polls say?

The ANC remains a highly popular party and is still expected to retain a large share of votes. But as public frustration grows and support slips, it is unclear if the party will be able to win the majority, like it historically has. In 2019, the ANC secured nearly 58 percent of the vote—the first time that number dropped below 60 percent. But with this election, polls have suggested that the ANC may not even reach 50 percent, although support has grown in recent weeks.

“This is an unprecedented election,” said Richard Calland, the Africa program director at the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership, “because it’s the first election in democratic South Africa where the outcome is uncertain in terms of whether or not there will be a majority party.”

In what is perhaps another reflection of growing public dissatisfaction and disillusionment, voter turnout has steadily dropped since 1994. While nearly 87 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots 30 years ago, just 66 percent did the same at the last election in 2019. There is “increasing disenchantment with politics and with the ANC,” Calland said.

3. Why have South Africans soured on the ANC?

When South Africa held its first democratic election in 1994, marking the end of apartheid, there was a sweeping sense of hope in the country’s future—and the role that the ANC would play in steering it forward.

“The election 30 years ago was a seminal moment for South Africa,” said Tlhabi, the journalist. “There was a festive mood, a hopeful mood, a celebratory mood, and a sense that history was happening. We had a lot of hopes as citizens.”

Three decades later, that hope has morphed into frustration. South Africa had the world’s highest unemployment rate in 2023—and that’s just one part of a long list of issues that have angered voters. More than half of the country’s population lives in poverty, according to the World Bank, while violent crime has surged and rolling electricity blackouts continue to throttle the country. And a legacy of corruption scandals and mismanagement continues to hang over the ANC, further damaging public perceptions of the party.

“In terms of the state of the economy, the state of our foreign relations, just the state of our roads, the level of crime in the country—we cannot carry on like this,” said Solomon, the professor. “Most people feel that they are going backward.”

In one of the ANC’s more recent scandals, Ramaphosa was embroiled in controversy after he failed to report a burglary of enormous sums of foreign cash stashed in a sofa at his game ranch. Although a South African anti-corruption watchdog later cleared the leader of wrongdoing, the scandal dealt a major blow to his reputation, especially because he originally campaigned on an anti-corruption platform.

Other recent instances of corruption include the case of ANC lawmaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, who resigned from her position as speaker of the South African National Assembly last month after she was charged with corruption and money laundering. In 2020, the party’s secretary-general, Ace Magashule, faced charges of corruption, fraud, and money laundering. And Zuma’s presidency was marred by a sweeping corruption scandal involving the country’s multibillion arms deal with a French company.

“The ANC has been the torch-bearer of really shocking corruption acts in our country,” Tlhabi said. “And I think there are people who want to see them pay the price and be held accountable.”

4. What does this mean for how South Africa positions itself on the global stage?

South Africa has managed a careful geopolitical balancing act as tensions between the United States, China, and Russia heat up, all while positioning itself as the moral leader of the so-called global south. In one of the country’s most prominent moves, South Africa filed a case at the International Court of Justice in December 2023, accusing Israel of committing genocide in the Gaza Strip.

One major point of friction between Washington and South Africa is the latter’s close ties with Moscow: Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, South Africa has refrained from criticizing Russia at the United Nations, and U.S. officials have accused it of arming the Russian war effort.

The precariousness of this position was on full display last July, when Johannesburg was hosting a summit of the BRICS bloc (then comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and Russian President Vladimir Putin—who is currently wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC)—was expected to attend. Although he did not ultimately show up for the summit, if he did land in the country, South Africa would have been forced to choose between abiding by its legal obligations to the ICC and currying favor with the West, or damaging relations with a close ally—putting Pretoria in a bind.

In the event that the ANC falls short of receiving a majority of the vote and must form a coalition government, some experts say the makeup of the group could shape South Africa’s future foreign-policy ambitions. “I think one of the fundamental questions is: What does the coalition look like? Is it more pragmatic, or is it more populist?” said Witney Schneidman, a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for African affairs. If the coalition adopts a more populist stance, he said, “it’s going to exacerbate tensions with the U.S. There’s no question about it.”

Still, no matter what happens, the ANC will likely try to retain control over the country’s foreign policy, said Allison, the co-founder of the Continent newspaper.

“South Africa’s foreign-policy positions, although not always particularly well executed, have been relatively consistent,” Allison said. “It tries to walk this sort of middle path between the various superpowers, not being drawn on any one particular side, and trying to kind of retain a sort of moral leadership of the global south.”

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beardedmrbean · 6 months ago

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JOHANNESBURG (AP) — South Africa was heading closer to the reality of a national coalition government for the first time and a series of complex negotiations to achieve that, as partial election results Friday put the ruling African National Congress well short of a majority.

With more than 65% of votes counted across the country's nine provinces, the ANC — which has held a majority for 30 years since the end of apartheid — had received just under 42% of the national vote in Wednesday's election, according to the partial results as counting continued. That represented a huge drop from the 57.5% it received in the last national election in 2019, although there was still some way to go.

The ANC was still widely expected to be the biggest party, but its being so far off 50% at this stage of an election was unprecedented, analysts said.

The commission that runs the election has said the final results will be announced by Sunday, possibly sooner. While all the major parties indicated they would wait for those final numbers before entering any coalition talks, the country's focus now was firmly on whom the ANC might approach to jointly govern Africa's most developed economy if it loses its majority.

ANC deputy secretary general Nomvula Mokonyane said the party’s leadership would meet on Friday and “reflect on what is good for the country.”

It was anyone's guess what the ANC might do, given it has said so little about any coalition plans and that there are dozens of opposition parties contesting the election. The three other major parties are the centrist main opposition Democratic Alliance, the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters and the new MK Party led by former South African President Jacob Zuma, who once led the ANC.

Should the ANC lose its majority, it would also have implications for President Cyril Ramaphosa. South Africans vote for parties in elections and the president is then chosen by lawmakers in Parliament. If it loses its majority, the ANC would need help from other parties to reelect Ramaphosa for a second term.

There is time pressure because Parliament must sit within 14 days of the election results being announced to choose a president. Also, the longer it takes to form a coalition, the more chance of market instability.

Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen said he was open to working with the ANC, although he would have to first speak with a group of other smaller parties with which he has a preelection agreement. He said the possibility of the country's biggest political shift in 30 years "opens up a whole new universe for politics in South Africa and to start building something better for the people of South Africa.”

Steenhuisen had said on election day: “All bets are off in this election. We’re heading into coalition country.”

With votes counted from more than 15,000 of the 23,000 polling stations, the ANC led by some way, as expected. The Democratic Alliance was second on around 23% of the vote. Zuma's MK Party had 12% and the EFF around 9%.

Coalition negotiations could depend on how far the ANC falls short of a majority in the final results, if indeed it remains under 50%. If it’s just short of a majority, it could approach several smaller parties to get past 50%. If it is some way off — as it was in the latest results — it might have to work with one of those three main opposition parties. They have very different ideologies.

Analysts say an ANC-EFF or an ANC-MK coalition could spook investors given EFF and MK pledges to nationalize parts of South Africa's economy, the most developed on the African continent. The inclusion of the business-friendly DA in a coalition government would be welcomed by investors, according to Aleix Montana, the southern Africa analyst at the British-based risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.

The ANC has had a clear majority for all of South Africa's democracy since the party swept to power in a 1994 election which officially ended the apartheid system of white minority rule, leading Nelson Mandela to become the country's first Black president. It has been the dominant political force and slipping below 50% would be a momentous change for South Africa, even if the signs were on the wall.

The ANC's support has steadily declined from a high of nearly 70% of the vote 20 years ago as South Africa grapples with deep socioeconomic problems, including widespread poverty and now one of the worst unemployment rates in the world at 32%. Poverty and unemployment disproportionately affect South Africa's Black majority that make up 80% of the population and were the core of the ANC's support over the years.

While the inequalities of apartheid were always going to be hard to solve, and the ANC was praised for making progress in its first 10 years in government, it is now being blamed by many for failures in basic government services, numerous corruption scandals and most recently an electricity crisis that led to rolling blackouts across the country of 62 million.

A projection from a government agency and national broadcaster SABC, based on vote returns, was estimating on Friday that the ANC would end up with just over 40%, a drop of around 17 percentage points, which would be a stunning result in the context of South Africa.

#nunyas news #good

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posttexasstressdisorder · 2 years ago

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The US has accused South Africa of supplying arms to Russia in a covert naval operation, escalating a foreign policy crisis for President Cyril Ramaphosa over the country’s ties to the Kremlin and position on the Ukraine war.

Reuben Brigety, US ambassador to South Africa, told local media on Thursday that the US believed weapons and ammunition were loaded on to the Lady R, a Russian vessel under sanctions that docked at Simon’s Town naval dockyard near Cape Town in December.

“Among the things we noted was the docking of the cargo ship . . . which we are confident uploaded weapons and ammunition on to that vessel in Simon’s Town as it made its way back to Russia,” he said, in comments reported by South Africa’s News24. Brigety also said that senior US officials had “profound concerns” about the incident, which “does not suggest to us the actions of a non-aligned country”.

The state department said the US had raised the issue directly with South African officials. Spokesman Vedant Patel said: “The US has serious concerns about the docking of a sanctioned Russian cargo vessel at a South African naval port in December of last year.”

“We have been quite clear and have not parsed words about any country taking steps to support Russia’s illegal and brutal war in Ukraine,” he added, “and we will continue to engage with partners and countries on this topic.”

Ramaphosa’s office responded by saying an independent inquiry would be set up under a retired judge to look into the allegations. It also said talks had been held between South African and US officials over the vessel and an agreement to allow investigations to continue. “It is therefore disappointing that the US ambassador has adopted a counter-productive public position that undermines the understanding reached on the matter and the very positive and constructive engagements between the two delegations,”

Ramaphosa’s office said in a statement. US anger highlights the mounting tensions between the west and countries that have refused to condemn Russia over the war or join sanctions efforts. Like South Africa, India has continued to regard Russia as a friendly nation and western diplomats have struggled to convince developing nations across Africa and Asia to back Ukraine.

Brigety also criticised a resolution from the ruling African National Congress, which said “the US provoked the war with Russia over Ukraine”. John Steenhuisen, leader of South Africa’s main opposition Democratic Alliance, called for an urgent parliamentary debate on South Africa’s involvement with Russia, and said that the US claim “brings into question the transparency” of the ANC.

The rand dropped 2 per cent to R19.20 to the US dollar after Brigety’s comments, its weakest level since April 2020. South Africa has said it is non-aligned in the war, but Ramaphosa’s government is under pressure over signs it is favouring Russia, for example by holding joint naval exercises this year.

Ramaphosa has also extended an invitation for Russian president Vladimir Putin to attend a Brics leaders’ summit in Johannesburg in August — a move that has backfired on Pretoria after the International Criminal Court indicted Putin for war crimes. South Africa, a member of the ICC, would be legally obliged to arrest Putin if he travels there. Recommended News in-depthSouth Africa

Ramaphosa’s ICC gaffe underscores S African quandary over Putin invite Vladimir Putin and Cyril Ramaphosa Sydney Mufamadi, Ramaphosa’s national security adviser, recently visited the US to explain South Africa’s stance and to try to preserve trade links. The scandal over the Lady R is likely to overshadow these efforts. The Lady R, which is owned by Transmorflot, a company placed under sanctions by the US last year, appeared to switch off its transponder as it made the stop in Cape Town after a voyage down the west coast of Africa.

South Africa’s defence minister said that, after the ship left port, it had delivered a consignment for the country’s defence forces, but provided no details on what the vessel may have picked up in Cape Town.

The South African government in January officially denied it had approved any arms sales from South Africa to Russia since Moscow began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Additional reporting by Mary McDougall in London

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truuther · 16 days ago

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standforunitysa · 2 months ago

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John Steenhuisen: The Enigma Behind South Africa’s Opposition

John Steenhuisen, the current leader of the Democratic Alliance (DA), stands as one of the most polarizing figures in South African politics. His career, marked by moments of sharp criticism and flashes of political strategy, positions him at the heart of the country’s opposition to the ruling African National Congress (ANC). While Steenhuisen has played a vital role in shaping the DA’s policies…

#2024 #controversial #democratic alliance #education #John #Misunderstood #objectivity #southafrica #StandForUnitySa #Unbiased #understanding #unity

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harriswalz4usabybr · 2 months ago

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Saturday, August 31, 2024 - Tim Walz

Governors Walz and Laura spent the day campaigning in Kansas, while sporting Ralston High School (or Nebraska) gear due to a friendly bet from the Friday Night Football game up north. The schedule of 'official' events is below.

Topeka, KS Event Location: Kansas State Capitol Event Type: Policy Announcement Event Time: 9:00 - 10:00 CT *Full-text of the speech to follow shortly.

Salina, KS Event Location: Webster Conference Center Event Type: Lunch with Agriculture Industry Leaders Event Time: 12:00 - 15:00 CT *This event was focused on learning more from people we would like to welcome to the new agriculture initiative we want to bring to the state. Leaders from Cargill, Tyson, The Land Institute, American Topsoil, ADM, Syngenta and Nestle were invited to lead the corporate markets portion; Researchers from KSU, WSU, and FHSU who focus on engineering, agriculture, genetics, public health, and Native American history were invited to head up the academic side; Governor Laura Kelly and Congresswoman Sharice Davids were invited to head up the government entity side as were members of the Prairie Band Potawatomi and Kickapoo tribes. Additionally there were speeches, which took place after Governors Walz and Kelly left. These speeches were from special guests as follows; John Steenhuisen Minister of Agriculture from South Africa and Carlos Fávaro Minister of Agriculture and Livestock from Brazil. The event was very high energy and we believe this energy will propel the new initiative forward.

Hays, KS Event Location: Fort Hays State University Event Type: Get Out the Vote Event Time: 17:00 - 20:30 CT *A campaign of door knocking was kicked off on-campus by the Governors but they knocked on many doors off-campus as well. Mail-in ballots were a topic of many discussion and directions on how to apply for mail-in were supplied, but no forms were given out.

~BR~

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andizi · 3 months ago

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Controversy: Minister John Steenhuisen is attempting to appoint his unqu...

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bravecompanynews · 3 months ago

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NewsWrap Ep 4 – Khumalo, Johnson, De Beer on MK chaos, Shivambu; SA’s swimming superstar; McPherson; US tipping turmoil. - Notice Today Online - #GLOBAL https://www.merchant-business.com/newswrap-ep-4-khumalo-johnson-de-beer-on-mk-chaos-shivambu-sas-swimming-superstar-mcpherson-us-tipping-turmoil/?feed_id=175117&_unique_id=66c7d6e90275f In this episode escalating chaos at the MK Party after its founder exposes the fraudulent actions of the Zuma family; questions over the motives behind EFF co-founder Floyd Shivambu’s resignation from the party; teaser from the in-depth interview with swimming superstar Tatjana Smith; and why Americans are tiring of having to pay brazenly demands for ever higher tips.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Watch here [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7Q3DCrMqFE[/embed]Listen hereTranscript of the video ___STEADY_PAYWALL___Good eveningIn this episode of NewsWrap, context on the major news stories of the week – more chaos around the MK party; South Africa’s home-grown swimming superstar Tatjana Smith; Neil de Beer’s list of the 10 most wanted political crooks; Dean McPherson attacking the Construction mafia; and a new tipping system driving Americans crazy. First up, though, let’s recap on the latest news headlines…….…. In the news headlinesWe have details in this episode on the two big political stories of the week – MK founder Jabulani Khumalo’s disclosures of alleged fraud by the Zuma family; and the departure by EFF co-founder Floyd Shivambu for the MK. In another important development, however, peace may be breaking out between former allies turned foes, the Democratic Alliance and Freedom Front Plus. DA leader John Steenhuisen and FF+ leader Dr. Pieter Groenewald met this week to discuss stabilizing governing coalitions in Western Cape municipalities. They pledged to work together to ensure stable governance and service delivery.Sasol’s full-year results ending June 2024 highlighted an R50bn bottom line reverse into deep losses, mainly due to write-offs in the controversial Lake Charles project in Louisiana. The final dividend was passed based on new criteria:. Shareholders would receive no payout unless the net debt is below $4bn. At yearend Sasol’s net debt was $4.1bn. The company ascribed the decline in earnings to lower oil and chemical prices, as well as operational challenges. Despite this, Sasol maintained a strong balance sheet and announced plans to focus on cost-saving measures and advancing its transition to sustainable energy sources. The poor numbers had been discounted in the Sasol share price, which actually rose 3% in the days following the release of results. Watch out for our interview with Sasol’s new CEO Simon Baloyi on Monday. Once known as the Roodepoort Rocket because of its high leverage to the gold price, DRDGOLD is nowadays a steady-as-she-goes stock with the share price up just 1% in the past year despite a 16% rise in the rand gold price. This week, the company reported a 13.5% increase in its revenue, to R6.24 billion, for the year to end June. Production fell 5% to 5,000 kilograms. All-in costs rose 15% to around R950 000/kg, still comfortably below the average gold price of R1.25m per kg.Absa’s board announced that Arrie Rautenbach, 55, will be taking early retirement after two and a bit years as CEO. No reasons for his resignation have been disclosed. Rautenbach will be temporarily succeeded by Absa lidfer Charles Russon, the third executive to act in this role and fifth CEO overall since Maria Ramos left just five years ago.South Africa’s inflation slowed in July 2024, with the headline CPI rising just 0.4% month-on-month, well below expectations. Annual inflation dropped to 4.6%, and core inflation to 4.3%, the lowest since May 2022. Falling fuel and food prices contributed to this trend, signalling potential interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank.

The nation is mourning the passing of Dr. William Smith, a revered education pioneer and Rhodes University alumnus who transformed South African education through innovative teaching methods and televised lessons. Smith established Star Schools and then developed educational videos that were distributed through the SABC – his Basic Mathematics video rated in the UK as the best in the world in 1984. By 2000 his programmes were reaching over 100 million viewers in 28 African countries. Rhodes Vice-Chancellor Sizwe Mabizela hailed him as the nation’s teacher. In four days, Chris Steyn’s interview with MK Party founder Jabulani Khumalo has been viewed by almost half a million people spending 10 minutes per view. It features Khumalo’s allegations of fraud and deceit by the Zuma family, headed by Jacob, the 82-year-old former president…… In that interview with political scientist and former Oxford Don RW Johnson, here’s the follow up on the EFF co-founder’s defection….Onto what for us at BizNews was our big event of the week – the in-studio interview with South Africa’s most decorated Olympian, double gold and double silver medalist Tatjana Smith. The discussion, a must-watch, was published on BizNewsTV this afternoon. As a taster, in this segment the home-grown superstar explains why she took the road less travelled, rejecting foreign advances to entrust her career to Pretoria University swimming coach Rocco Meiring………. Now to a man with one of the toughest jobs in South Africa: new Public Works minister Dean McPherson. Our colleague Bronwyn Nielsen conducted a fascinating interview with him this week on how he intends tackling the Construction Mafia,a criminal syndicate causing such devastation, especially McPherson’s home province of KwaZulu Natal….. Chris Steyn’s Sunday afternoon discussions with Neil de Beer have become the go-to source for tens of thousands seeking perspective on the latest political developments. The UIM leader was on fire this week, listing the country’s 10 most wanted criminals, a group that found common cause in membership of the MK Party….. When I visited the US last month, among the most irritating parts of the trip was the way everyone, and I mean everyone, expects to be tipped. I’m not the only agitated about this. Our partners at the Financial Times took a closer look—here’s FT News Briefing host Marc Filippino and the FT’s US Financial Editor Brooke Masters…..Until next week. I’m Alec Hogg of BizNews.com.Read also: http://109.70.148.72/~merchant29/6network/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/sddefault.jpg BLOGGER - #GLOBAL

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mariacallous · 5 months ago

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Who Will Be in South Africa’s Next Government?

It’s official: The African National Congress (ANC) party will need to share power for the first time since apartheid ended in 1994 after losing its parliamentary majority in South Africa’s May 29 national election. The historic loss was in part due to former President Jacob Zuma’s 6-month-old uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party eating into ANC support. The ANC received 40.2 percent of votes, down more than 17 percentage points compared with the 57.5 percent it secured in the last national election in 2019. It now holds just 159 seats out of 400 in the National Assembly.

The center-right Democratic Alliance (DA) trailed in second place with 21.8 percent of votes (87 seats). Zuma’s MK gained 14.6 percent of votes (58 seats), becoming the third-biggest party in the National Assembly.

In Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal, the former president rejected the final tally, claiming vote-rigging, and threatened violence if South Africa’s Electoral Commission declared the results on Sunday as planned. “People would be provoked,” he said, referring to the violent riots that gripped the nation when he was sent to jail in July 2021. “Do not start trouble when there is no trouble.” MK won 45.3 percent of votes in KwaZulu-Natal��just under the 50 percent needed to govern the province outright.

Zuma’s earlier conviction means he is barred from taking a seat in the National Assembly, but he is still able to pull the strings from behind the scenes. “Love him or hate him, Zuma is the most consequential South African politician of his generation,” Sisonke Msimang wrote in Foreign Policy prior to the election. Another ANC splinter group, the radical left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), dropped to fourth place, with a vote share of 9.5 percent (39 seats).

“We suffered heavily, but we are not out,” ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula said at a press conference on Sunday. “We are talking to everybody. There’s nobody we are not going to talk to.” The ANC now needs to form a coalition with one or more opposition parties and began talks on Monday.

The first option that’s popular with investors is a partnership with the pro-business DA. But factions of the ANC are ideologically opposed to the free market agenda promised by the DA. There’s a high potential for political infighting that could weaken any ability to govern cohesively. The DA does not support racial quotas in the workplace—introduced by the ANC—or the new government-funded national health insurance system.

The DA also opposes setting a minimum wage, which it says contributes to unemployment; meanwhile, the ANC believes a minimum wage shelters low-skilled Black workers from extreme poverty.

EFF leader Julius Malema warned the ANC against forming a coalition that would “reinforce white supremacy” and make it a “puppet of a white imperialist agenda”—referring to the DA, which is perceived as serving the interests of minority white South Africans. But the DA has drawn support from Black and mixed-race voters and is seen by most South Africans as governing the best-run province—the Western Cape and its capital, Cape Town.

In turn, DA leader John Steenhuisen has been open to an ANC partnership from the outset knowing that the party was unlikely to reach more than 22 percent of votes. He called an ANC-MK-EFF coalition a “doomsday” scenario.

An alternative to appease dissenting ANC members would be a coalition with the ANC, DA, and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), which draws its support mainly from ethnic Zulus in KwaZulu-Natal. This would give the three parties 66 percent of the national vote and a commanding majority in South Africa’s most populous province, Gauteng.

A coalition between the ANC and the EFF would intensify great-power competition in the region by further antagonizing the United States. The EFF has suggested nationalizing key institutions and redistributing minority white-owned land without compensation. The two parties currently run the Johannesburg city council together but have had violent clashes running Ekurhuleni, a municipality east of Johannesburg.

The EFF and MK advocate similar economic policies, but an alliance between MK and the ANC is at the moment unlikely due to the souring of relations between Zuma and ANC members. Zuma’s party has demanded that President Cyril Ramaphosa step down before any coalition talks, which ANC members have ruled out.

Coalitions have rarely worked in South Africa. Coalition governments that have previously governed major cities such as Johannesburg and Durban have been unsuccessful, as party rivalries often hampered the delivery of basic services. On a national level, this could affect the ability to swiftly introduce new policies and pass budgets to deal with the country’s immediate problems on the economy, energy, and jobs.

“The lack of ideological cohesion among parties has led to the rise of coalition politics in South Africa,” Ebrahim Fakir wrote in Foreign Policy just before the election. “The result is a governmental environment where oversight and accountability are minimal—and where policy implementation is erratic.”

Leaked ANC documents seen by South Africa’s Daily Maverick suggest the party may opt for a minority government with a more stable supply and confidence agreement struck with the DA and IFP, similar to the parliamentary system currently in place in Canada. The arrangement would mean that the parties agree to back the ANC on key policy votes in exchange for concessions on specific policies.

Regardless, experts suggest Ramaphosa’s time in office could be limited. No ANC president has ever served a full second term. Nelson Mandela chose not to run for a second term, while his successors Thabo Mbeki and Zuma were forced to step down as party leader before their final terms ended. Having presided over such a historic defeat for the ANC, pressure may increase on Ramaphosa to step down before his mandate ends.

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beardedmrbean · 1 year ago

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South African political leader Julius Malema led racially violent chants at a massive rally on Saturday.

Malema, who is the leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters party, sang the genocidal anti-apartheid struggle song "Kill the Boer, the farmer," referring to the White descendants of Dutch settlers or "Boers" in South Africa.

The Economic Freedom Fighters has emerged as one of the preeminent powers in South African politics after the end of the Apartheid regime. Malema was originally a youth leader in the African National Congress (ANC) which was famous for being led by South Africa’s first Black leader, Nelson Mandela.

Malema faced backlash for his call for violence against White South Africans. John Steenhuisen, the leader of South Africa's biggest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA) condemned Malema on Monday, warning, "This is a man who is determined to ignite... civil war." He later noted that Malema is a "bloodthirsty tyrant" calling for "mass murder." He also claimed that the DA will file a complaint against Malema with the UN Human Rights Council.

While the EFF is a relatively new party, it appears to be rising in popularity.

"The liberal DA, which has traditionally appealed to a largely White electorate, is polling to win about 16 percent of the vote," the Agence France Presse reported. "The militant EFF, which advocates for reforms to increase land ownership among Black South Africans, is polling at around 13 percent."

According to the BBC noted that Malema has been brought to court for multiple similar offenses.

"He has been repeatedly accused of hate speech. He's been dragged to court by civil rights group AfriForum after the organisation filed a complaint to have the two songs Dubul'ibhunu (Shoot the Boer) and Biza a ma'fire brigade (Call the Fire Brigade) declared hate speech and unfair discrimination," the BBC reported in an article about the EFF’s 10-year anniversary.

At a similar rally in 2019, Malema declared he would be willing to destroy the political system in order to ensure equality.

"White people, all we want is to join you at the dinner table and eat with you," he said to thousands of followers at Soweto's Orlando Stadium. "If you do not want us to sit with you at the table, then we have no choice but to destroy the table."

In response to previous backlash he has faced for singing "Kill the Boer," ("Kill the White farmer") Malema said the EFF is not "anti-White" so much as seeking "equality for South Africa's Black majority."

Malema also argued that the EFF seeks to address the "ill-gotten privileges that White people enjoy, and which are being protected by the ANC."

In 2019, Malema said, "The first thing we will deal with is the issue of land. We want to expropriate the land without compensation so that Black people also benefit from its wealth."

#nunyas news #he seems like a nice fellow #let's do a trade

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